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 Post subject: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 6:47 am 
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Lets face it, this isnt the year, but who knows, maybe we can get somethig out of it. Its time to put Lee back in the rotation. Demp and Wells will both be in our rotation for at least the next 2 years. Despite Silvas solid start to the year, no teams going to be fooled into forgetting that hes Carlos Silva. Even if Tom Gorzelanny turns into a pumpkin, we have Cashner and J Jax, who may very well be in the big league bullpen by weeks end ready to take over. This leaves us with a valuable trade chip. Texas, Detroit, and even Dusty Bakers Reds strike me as legit contender who could really use another front of the rotation starter, and Ted Lilly could fit there bill. Is it too early to sell Ted? Heck, maybe even the surprising Nationals are feeling froggy. Does he have a NTC like everyone else on the team?

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 6:53 am 
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Quote:
Its time to put Lee back in the rotation


:-s


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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 7:11 am 
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Derwood wrote:
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Its time to put Lee back in the rotation


:-s


He surely meant Zambrano. He may have to fake an injury so he can make a couple rehab starts to get stretched out.

Back to the original question, what can they get for Lilly that would make it worth trading him now? May trades are usually the blockbuster types but I can't remember seeing one of those recently. Unless they got back an impact player they would have a hard time spinning this as not giving up on the season. There really isn't any good place to add an impact player except maybe 2nd base.

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 8:37 am 
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Def meant Z not Lee. Wed probably be looking at a prospect package more than an impact player though. Kinsler or Andrus sure would be nice though. :pig:

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Last edited by Slide Castro Slide on Mon May 17, 2010 8:47 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 8:46 am 
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West Side Rooter wrote:
Def meant Z not Lee. Wed probably be looking at a prospect package more than an impact player though. Kinsler or Andrus sure would be nice though.


Yeah you couldn't get Kinsler if you added Castro and Vitters along with Lilly.

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 8:50 am 
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I'm hoping the Cubs will be pretty big sellers come deadline time. Not sure who would bring the most value, but lots of teams should be looking for veteran help for their playoff runs.

Lilly's been a good Cub; I guess as with everyone, it depends on what we'd be looking at in terms of return value.

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 8:55 am 
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Soul wrote:
I'm hoping the Cubs will be pretty big sellers come deadline time. Not sure who would bring the most value, but lots of teams should be looking for veteran help for their playoff runs.

Lilly's been a good Cub; I guess as with everyone, it depends on what we'd be looking at in terms of return value.


I don't think he'd be against resigning with the Cubs if we traded him at the deadline. It doesn't happen all that often but it could in this event.

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 9:20 am 
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UMFan83 wrote:
West Side Rooter wrote:
Def meant Z not Lee. Wed probably be looking at a prospect package more than an impact player though. Kinsler or Andrus sure would be nice though.


Yeah you couldn't get Kinsler if you added Castro and Vitters along with Lilly.

You jsut beat the :pig: . I thought someone might take that seriously.

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 11:42 am 
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The prospect of a "fire sale" on this team might be just enough to keep me interested this season!

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 11:47 am 
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Kinsler is an injury prone product of his own environment. I think he's vastly overvalued. Not saying I wouldn't like to have him on the team, I would, but I think people consider him to be this elite 2B but when you look at his career away numbers they are delightfully mundane.

263G 1163PA .248/.320/.409/.729
vs.
267G 1166PA .312/.386/.541/.927

He also hasa career BABIP of .322 at home vs. .260 on the road

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 12:31 pm 
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rynefan wrote:
The prospect of a "fire sale" on this team might be just enough to keep me interested this season!


I don't think the Cubs will have a "fire sale" because many of their veterans have next-to-unmovable contracts. Secondly, the NL Central is weak and the Cubs probably won't be too far out to give up on the season. They have sucked as bad as I can remember this year and they're still only 5 1/2 games out with over 3/4 of the season to go. This is with ARam hitting like Aaron Miles, DLee struggling, and the "Ace of the rotation" doing a mediocre job out of the bullpen.


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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 1:32 pm 
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Backtobanks wrote:
rynefan wrote:
The prospect of a "fire sale" on this team might be just enough to keep me interested this season!


I don't think the Cubs will have a "fire sale" because many of their veterans have next-to-unmovable contracts. Secondly, the NL Central is weak and the Cubs probably won't be too far out to give up on the season. They have sucked as bad as I can remember this year and they're still only 5 1/2 games out with over 3/4 of the season to go. This is with ARam hitting like Aaron Miles, DLee struggling, and the "Ace of the rotation" doing a mediocre job out of the bullpen.


Plus the only expensive player without a no-trade clause is Ryan Dempster, which in hindsight seems odd since Hendry passes those things out like candy.

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 1:40 pm 
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daske17 wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
rynefan wrote:
The prospect of a "fire sale" on this team might be just enough to keep me interested this season!


I don't think the Cubs will have a "fire sale" because many of their veterans have next-to-unmovable contracts. Secondly, the NL Central is weak and the Cubs probably won't be too far out to give up on the season. They have sucked as bad as I can remember this year and they're still only 5 1/2 games out with over 3/4 of the season to go. This is with ARam hitting like Aaron Miles, DLee struggling, and the "Ace of the rotation" doing a mediocre job out of the bullpen.


Plus the only expensive player without a no-trade clause is Ryan Dempster, which in hindsight seems odd since Hendry passes those things out like candy.


Do 10-5 rights still exist, because if they do, Dempster has them.

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 2:22 pm 
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jersey cubs fan wrote:
daske17 wrote:
Backtobanks wrote:
rynefan wrote:
The prospect of a "fire sale" on this team might be just enough to keep me interested this season!


I don't think the Cubs will have a "fire sale" because many of their veterans have next-to-unmovable contracts. Secondly, the NL Central is weak and the Cubs probably won't be too far out to give up on the season. They have sucked as bad as I can remember this year and they're still only 5 1/2 games out with over 3/4 of the season to go. This is with ARam hitting like Aaron Miles, DLee struggling, and the "Ace of the rotation" doing a mediocre job out of the bullpen.


Plus the only expensive player without a no-trade clause is Ryan Dempster, which in hindsight seems odd since Hendry passes those things out like candy.


Do 10-5 rights still exist, because if they do, Dempster has them.


I think they do, and both Lee and Aramis qualify (I believe). The NTCs really haven't been that much of a problem because most of the players who have them weren't guys we wanted to trade before the 10/5 rights kicked in.

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 2:29 pm 
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It is pretty incredible that the Cubs have been this bad and yet they aren't really too far gone.

St. Louis is 3-7 in their last 10. I didn't realize this.

I knew the Crew had fallen on hard times, but now it's up to 6 straight losses. They look abysmal right now; worse than the Cubs.

Cincy & Pittsburgh are both ahead of the Cubs -- I don't think it's out of line to suggest that those two teams would need to prove they can stick around late in the season before feeling like they are a threat.

I guess I'm just hoping the Cubs don't stay in love with their roster. Maybe a "fire sale" is too much to ask, but if they're sitting 4 or 5 games out of the WC at the deadline I hope they are looking to make a deal or two. Way too early for me to start suggesting who it should be though.

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 2:30 pm 
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dew wrote:
I think they do, and both Lee and Aramis qualify (I believe). The NTCs really haven't been that much of a problem because most of the players who have them weren't guys we wanted to trade before the 10/5 rights kicked in.


Except Samardzija, and Soriano.

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 2:32 pm 
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jersey cubs fan wrote:
dew wrote:
I think they do, and both Lee and Aramis qualify (I believe). The NTCs really haven't been that much of a problem because most of the players who have them weren't guys we wanted to trade before the 10/5 rights kicked in.


Except Samardzija, and Soriano.


That's why I said most.

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Mon May 17, 2010 4:23 pm 
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The Logan wrote:
Kinsler is an injury prone product of his own environment. I think he's vastly overvalued. Not saying I wouldn't like to have him on the team, I would, but I think people consider him to be this elite 2B but when you look at his career away numbers they are delightfully mundane.

263G 1163PA .248/.320/.409/.729
vs.
267G 1166PA .312/.386/.541/.927

He also hasa career BABIP of .322 at home vs. .260 on the road


that basically weakens your argument. just sayin...

i agree he's pretty overrated though


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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Tue May 18, 2010 6:13 pm 
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lily out after this year right? at this point there is no reason to sign him. we have no number 1, and until we do we don't need to spend lots of money on 3's and 4's. i like lilly and he has done well for us, i do not dislike the signings but we aren't contenders yet we have nearly 60 mil wrapped up in starters with no big time stud. if we can get anything from lilly and either get z straightened or moved along at a savings or if god smiled on us, someone to take his contract down the stretch(stretch is right), we could start over. we would have a few months to evaluate what's here and then build again. right now i would much rather see 20+ mil go to cliff lee than to lilly and z, but we can not win with the current staff even in it's top form, and we certainly are not going to drop another 20-25 mil into the starters without something moving.


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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Tue May 18, 2010 6:21 pm 
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rynefan wrote:
The prospect of a "fire sale" on this team might be just enough to keep me interested this season!


the problem is that with the contracts we'd like to move, it would take a miracle to get anyone to jump without us taking on some money. save for lilly, who could be rented for the last few months.
even if they got crazy hot, who would take soriano, rameriz, or even lee(most likely but not as a .265 20 hr 1b) hopefully the yankess can come down with a few key injuries that we can fill- and they certainly woudln't take soriano back.

it would be really nice if z came back and showed the form of the 15-16 game winner that he is/was...then maybe someone could take that deal. we paid him 19 mil to be a stud and he had never turned into that. good pitcher-yea, 20 game winner, consistant? feel like you will win every time he takes the hill...no. at his best, he was nearly unbeatable when he was on, but he was only on like that a handful of times a year.


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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Tue May 18, 2010 8:07 pm 
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neely crenshaw wrote:
rynefan wrote:
The prospect of a "fire sale" on this team might be just enough to keep me interested this season!


the problem is that with the contracts we'd like to move, it would take a miracle to get anyone to jump without us taking on some money. save for lilly, who could be rented for the last few months.
even if they got crazy hot, who would take soriano, rameriz, or even lee(most likely but not as a .265 20 hr 1b) hopefully the yankess can come down with a few key injuries that we can fill- and they certainly woudln't take soriano back.

it would be really nice if z came back and showed the form of the 15-16 game winner that he is/was...then maybe someone could take that deal. we paid him 19 mil to be a stud and he had never turned into that. good pitcher-yea, 20 game winner, consistant? feel like you will win every time he takes the hill...no. at his best, he was nearly unbeatable when he was on, but he was only on like that a handful of times a year.


Name me 5 guys in the major leagues who are consistently 20 game winners


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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Tue May 18, 2010 10:18 pm 
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Keener98 wrote:
neely crenshaw wrote:
rynefan wrote:
The prospect of a "fire sale" on this team might be just enough to keep me interested this season!


the problem is that with the contracts we'd like to move, it would take a miracle to get anyone to jump without us taking on some money. save for lilly, who could be rented for the last few months.
even if they got crazy hot, who would take soriano, rameriz, or even lee(most likely but not as a .265 20 hr 1b) hopefully the yankess can come down with a few key injuries that we can fill- and they certainly woudln't take soriano back.

it would be really nice if z came back and showed the form of the 15-16 game winner that he is/was...then maybe someone could take that deal. we paid him 19 mil to be a stud and he had never turned into that. good pitcher-yea, 20 game winner, consistant? feel like you will win every time he takes the hill...no. at his best, he was nearly unbeatable when he was on, but he was only on like that a handful of times a year.


Name me 5 guys in the major leagues who are consistently 20 game winners


It's all of the guys that won 20 games in 2006 and 2009.

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Wed May 19, 2010 8:20 am 
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I don't believe that's what he was saying. There aren't 5 guys that consistantly win 20 games. What he's talking about is a true #1 starter. Zambrano has never really been that guy.

How much does Cliff Lee make? I heard some baseball talking heads say that Seattle is looking to get out from his contract. Maybe they'd take a package of Zambrano, Wells and Stevens for Lee, then they could spin Zambrano to Boston for salary relief or less than it would cost Boston in terms of prospects to just trade for Lee.

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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Wed May 19, 2010 8:27 am 
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Zambrano doesn't have to be a "true #1" to be very useful as a starter. That's the thing I don't get: yes, to this point he's overpaid when you look at the end result, but it's not like he's some huge bust the either needs to be banished to the bullpen or traded away. Plus he's still just 28.


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 Post subject: Re: When to sell Ted Lilly
PostPosted: Wed May 19, 2010 8:43 am 
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The fact that he's overpaid though is important because they are also overpaying Dempster. If they could clear Zambrano's Salary to make room for a true ace I think they'd have to do that if they want to salvage this season.

On the other hand, if they replace Lilly with an in house option like Cashner or Jackson that frees up a good chunk of money too but not as much as Zambrano.

I don't believe Zambrano has to go. I also believe he should be in the rotation and it's either childish or dumb or both to keep him in the pen.

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