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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Mon Aug 24, 2009 10:59 pm 
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davell wrote:
Unless I'm mistaken and reading it wrong, it says "for the left side" not "to his left" which would be more specific. But, I read it as a generic comment probably based on his high error rate. But, I DO agree it's too early obviously to say where he'll wind up eventually anyway.


I also ASSUMED the assessment of his defense might be based solely on his error rate. Since they didn't go into detail of their conclusion, suppose we'll just have to guess. In any event, I'm with pretty much everyone else--I am very excited to see him progressing so quickly. Once he develops physically, we could have a very nice middle IF in any event.


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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 7:56 am 
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heh. all i did was read outshined ones paraphrase. as usual, o_o and his receding hairline screw things up.


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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:11 am 
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Am I the only one getting a Starlin Castro - Ronny Cedeno vibe?

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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:20 am 
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Rob wrote:
Am I the only one getting a Starlin Castro - Ronny Cedeno vibe?


Is there anything similar about them other than being toolsy SS? Cedeno couldn't touch Castro's BB/K #s, and was 2 years older along the way.

Both were promoted agressively, but Castro earned them with his #s, while Ronny was promoted on his tools alone.

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Last edited by SouthSideRyan on Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:23 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:22 am 
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Rob wrote:
Am I the only one getting a Starlin Castro - Ronny Cedeno vibe?


Probably not, but they aren't that comparable. When Ronny was 18/19/20 he was an A ball guy posting sub 600 OPS seasons and striking out in 20% of his PA with few walks. Starlin is 19 and already holding his own in AA, striking out much less frequently. Ronny did have similar production when he got to AA, but he was already 21 (still young, but not Castro young) and had about 1200 professional PA under his belt. Castro had less than half the pro experience of Cedeno when he first saw AA pitching. Ronny exploded in AAA at 22, but he was hitting in the low 200s for most of his minor league career.

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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:22 am 
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Cedeno was two years older than Castro when he played AA ball.


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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:31 am 
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There are a lot more similarities than you would like to admit. Both guys are early count hitters with good contact skills, minimal walks and strikeouts and quality defense. Just because Castro is in AA and succeeding it doesn't change the fact that he can do nothing but hit for an empty batting average and even if he learns to hit for power, he won't be all that good until he looses his aggression. Ronny Cedeno was the same way. Guess what. He never lost it. Felix Pie was the same way. Guess what. He never lost it. Corey Patterson was the same way. Guess what. He never lost it. Just because Cedeno wasn't in AA succeeding like Castro is, it doesn't make the claim invalid. They're VERY similar tool wise and projection wise.


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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:37 am 
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Sure, Castro has similar tools and a similar ceiling to what Cedeno had at 19, but I think it's fair to feel better about his chances of reaching that ceiling given his performance at AA this year.


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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:39 am 
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and Cedeno's AAA performance later his in his career beats this ten-fold. No one's saying Cedeno was the same at age 19. Cedeno was a better prospect when he was hitting .350+ in AAA than Castro is now.


Last edited by Mephistopheles on Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:40 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:39 am 
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Mephistopheles wrote:
There are a lot more similarities than you would like to admit. Both guys are early count hitters with good contact skills, minimal walks and strikeouts and quality defense. Just because Castro is in AA and succeeding it doesn't change the fact that he can do nothing but hit for an empty batting average and even if he learns to hit for power, he won't be all that good until he looses his aggression. Ronny Cedeno was the same way. Guess what. He never lost it. Felix Pie was the same way. Guess what. He never lost it. Corey Patterson was the same way. Guess what. He never lost it. Just because Cedeno wasn't in AA succeeding like Castro is, it doesn't make the claim invalid. They're VERY similar tool wise and projection wise.


Similar tool-wise doesn't mean much. They are toolsy shortstops, all toolsly shortstops are similar tool wise. How does the fact that Castro is 19, doing well in AA, compared to Ronny being 19 and sucking in A ball not make a difference? Yeah, the similarities are much more than if we were comparing Castro to some left fielder, but other than the fact that they are SS and have similar low walk rates, there are meaningful differences. Contrary to what you said, they don't have similar minimal strikeouts. Ronny struck out a lot, Castro does not. In Daytona Castro struck out 41 times in 358 AB this year, when Ronny was in Daytona he struck out 82 times in 380 AB. That's a fairly huge difference that you not only gloss over but actually contend is a similarity.

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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:41 am 
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So now we're rewarding minor league hitters who try to end their at-bats within three pitches. Excellent!


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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:42 am 
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Castro has a .072 IsoD in AA.


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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:45 am 
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Mephistopheles wrote:
and Cedeno's AAA performance later his in his career beats this ten-fold. No one's saying Cedeno was the same at age 19. Cedeno was a better prospect when he was hitting .350+ in AAA than Castro is now.

We can talk about that three years from now if Castro's repeating AAA for the second time.


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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:46 am 
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The point is that right now, at best, Castro projects to be what Cedeno was in AAA three years later.


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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:47 am 
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Mephistopheles wrote:
So now we're rewarding minor league hitters who try to end their at-bats within three pitches. Excellent!


I'm not a fan of overly aggressive hitters, but you are being completely disingenuous when you try and pretend they had similar K rates, and that producing in high A and AA at 19 is the same as sucking in A ball at 19 and 20. It has nothing to do with rewarding anybody. It's just saying there are significant differences between Castro and Cedeno.

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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:49 am 
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Mephistopheles wrote:
The point is that right now, at best, Castro projects to be what Cedeno was in AAA three years later.


Anybody projecting towards that at the age of 22 is something to be excited about.

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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:50 am 
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Mephistopheles wrote:
The point is that right now, at best, Castro projects to be what Cedeno was in AAA three years later.


Right.

Mephistopheles wrote:
. If I had to sit down and make a top Cubs prospect, with approximate national rankings and relatively contemprorary major league comps, I'd go:

1. Josh Vitters, 3B, 25-35, .300/.350/.480, likely: Rondell White; dream on: Magglio Ordonez and Mike Sweeney
2. Andrew Cashner, RHP, 50-70, power fastball/slider, likely: Kyle Farnsworth; dream on: Brad Lidge
3. Starlin Castro, SS, 80-100, .285/.340/.450, likely: Jimmy Rollins; dream on: Hanley Ramirez (and dream on)
3. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, 130-150, .285/.320/.420, likely: Tsuyoshi Nishioka; dream on: Derek Jeter
4. Jay Jackson, RHP, 130-150, #3 durable guy, likely: Kevin Correia; dream on: Tim Hudson
5. Brett Jackson, OF, 100-120, .270/.320/.480, likely: Torii Hunter; dream on: Mike Cameron
6. Chris Carpenter, RHP, 140-150, #2 brittle guy, likely: Brett Tomko; dream on: AJ Burnett; dream on in dreams: Chris Carpenter
7. Brooks Raley, LHP, 220-250, #3 durable guy, likely: Kenny Rogers; dream on: Mark Mulder and pre-Coors Mike Hampton
8. Kyler Burke, OF, 200-250, .250/.330/.450, likely: Ruben Mateo; dream on: Ellis Valentine or Jesse Barfield
9. DJ LeMaheiu, 2B, 250-300, .275/.340/.440, likely: Jody Davis; dream on: Ryne Sandberg
10. Ryan Flaherty, SS, 250-300, .275/.340/.440, likely: Mike Fontenot; dream on: Stephen Drew


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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 10:50 am 
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Mephistopheles wrote:
The point is that right now, at best, Castro projects to be what Cedeno was in AAA three years later.


With a much better minor league pedigree and a proven ability to hit for average, mitigating his chances for a Cedeno-esque flop.


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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 3:18 pm 
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Outshined_One wrote:
Mephistopheles wrote:
The point is that right now, at best, Castro projects to be what Cedeno was in AAA three years later.


Right.

Mephistopheles wrote:
. If I had to sit down and make a top Cubs prospect, with approximate national rankings and relatively contemprorary major league comps, I'd go:

1. Josh Vitters, 3B, 25-35, .300/.350/.480, likely: Rondell White; dream on: Magglio Ordonez and Mike Sweeney
2. Andrew Cashner, RHP, 50-70, power fastball/slider, likely: Kyle Farnsworth; dream on: Brad Lidge
3. Starlin Castro, SS, 80-100, .285/.340/.450, likely: Jimmy Rollins; dream on: Hanley Ramirez (and dream on)
3. Hak-Ju Lee, SS, 130-150, .285/.320/.420, likely: Tsuyoshi Nishioka; dream on: Derek Jeter
4. Jay Jackson, RHP, 130-150, #3 durable guy, likely: Kevin Correia; dream on: Tim Hudson
5. Brett Jackson, OF, 100-120, .270/.320/.480, likely: Torii Hunter; dream on: Mike Cameron
6. Chris Carpenter, RHP, 140-150, #2 brittle guy, likely: Brett Tomko; dream on: AJ Burnett; dream on in dreams: Chris Carpenter
7. Brooks Raley, LHP, 220-250, #3 durable guy, likely: Kenny Rogers; dream on: Mark Mulder and pre-Coors Mike Hampton
8. Kyler Burke, OF, 200-250, .250/.330/.450, likely: Ruben Mateo; dream on: Ellis Valentine or Jesse Barfield
9. DJ LeMaheiu, 2B, 250-300, .275/.340/.440, likely: Jody Davis; dream on: Ryne Sandberg
10. Ryan Flaherty, SS, 250-300, .275/.340/.440, likely: Mike Fontenot; dream on: Stephen Drew


OOOHHH. Buuuurrrrrnnn.

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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 4:32 pm 
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Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Mephistopheles wrote:
The point is that right now, at best, Castro projects to be what Cedeno was in AAA three years later.


With a much better minor league pedigree and a proven ability to hit for average, mitigating his chances for a Cedeno-esque flop.


yeah, i don't see how anyone can look at the two guys and say they're very similar. cedeno struck out in nearly 19% of his PAs from ages 19-21. castro was at 15.3% last year and this year he's under 10% while playing as one of the youngest players in each league. he clearly has contact skills that ronny cedeno did not possess. i'd be more concerned that he turns into rey ordonez - a guy who makes a lot of contact but doesn't make solid enough contact to hit for good average - than ronny cedeno.

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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 1:58 pm 
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From BA Jim Callis chat

Quote:
rick (champaine,il)


is cubs prospect hak-ju lee the real deal?

Jim Callis (2:37 PM)


Lee is the real deal. Speed is his standout tool, but in his U.S. debut he's also proving he can hit and play shortstop.


Quote:
Miller (Vegas)


Better Cubs shortstop prospect, Castro or Hak Ju Lee?

Jim Callis (2:50 PM)


I'll say Castro because he's proven himself at a much more difficult level.


Quote:
Kevin (Chicago)


Jim, love the chats. Where in the rotation does Cashner project? Or will he end up in the bullpen? Thank you.Kevin

Jim Callis (2:49 PM)


I still think he's a reliever.


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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 6:39 pm 
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TruffleShuffle wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Mephistopheles wrote:
The point is that right now, at best, Castro projects to be what Cedeno was in AAA three years later.


With a much better minor league pedigree and a proven ability to hit for average, mitigating his chances for a Cedeno-esque flop.


yeah, i don't see how anyone can look at the two guys and say they're very similar. cedeno struck out in nearly 19% of his PAs from ages 19-21. castro was at 15.3% last year and this year he's under 10% while playing as one of the youngest players in each league. he clearly has contact skills that ronny cedeno did not possess. i'd be more concerned that he turns into rey ordonez - a guy who makes a lot of contact but doesn't make solid enough contact to hit for good average - than ronny cedeno.


You dont see it? Really?

Two young shortstops with standout defensive tools and trouble making the routine plays... both of whom have line drive strokes and attack the ball early in the count. Granted, Castro is beginning to show some signs of patience at the plate as of late... but until that the only real difference was that Cedeno had more trouble putting the bat on the ball... though he hit it a bit harder when he made contact.

Yes... at the same age Castro has a huge leg up on Cedeno... but we really cant be expecting the sort of AAA breakout Cedeno had either. In this case I'd suggest trying to take a big step back and look at the big picture instead of trying to compare them year by year.

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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 6:42 pm 
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You can't just gloss over that Castro is hitting like 70 points higher with a much better K rate in the low minors. It's what sunk Cedeno, and Castro is already much, much better at it, all the while 2 years younger than Cedeno was at those levels.


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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 6:51 pm 
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Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
You can't just gloss over that Castro is hitting like 70 points higher with a much better K rate in the low minors. It's what sunk Cedeno, and Castro is already much, much better at it, all the while 2 years younger than Cedeno was at those levels.


And I think that completely glossing over Cedeno's .355/.403/.518 line at AAA at age 22 is a bit dishonest too. Cedeno's maturation took a FAR different route than you can expect Castro's to. I see no issue with trying to take a step back before looking at it.

Hey, I'm not saying Castro isn't a better prospect than Cedeno was at this age. He absolutely is, and not by a small margin. I was just commenting on the fact that there are quite a few similarities.

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 Post subject: Re: Cub prospects in the news
PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 7:43 pm 
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I don't understand how in the same post outlining their similarities you can say they K at different rates, and on contact hit the ball differently. If every toolsy SS who doesn't walk a lot were the same, then 90% of toolsy SS are the same. You(and Meph) are acting like people are expecting Castro to hit 400 in AAA. What does Cedeno's AAA line have to do with anything? We're supposed to be disappointed that Castro isn't likely to put up Cedeno's absurd AAA line?

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