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Friday July 30 , 2010

NSBB Prospect Rankings - Part 2

By Outshined_One

 

Part two of this column will feature various prospects who, for various reasons, missed the cut in North Side Baseball’s compilation Top 10 list.  This column will be divided into three parts.  The first part will look at prospects who fell into the 11-20 range on the posters’ top 30 lists.  The second part will look at the prospects who fell into the 20+ range.  The third and final part will have links to each poster’s list.

Prospects in the 11-20 Range

OF Tyler Colvin

Bio

Born: 09/05/1985
Birthplace: Augusta, GA
College: Clemson
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 190
Bats: L
Throws: L

Stats

Team Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB K HBP SB CS AVG BABIP OBP SLG OPS
Daytona A+ 32 112 18 28 5 2 1 10 40 13 27 1 3 1 0.250 0.321 0.326 0.357 0.683
Tennessee AA 84 307 51 92 13 7 14 50 161 16 57 1 5 1 0.300 0.331 0.334 0.524 0.859
Chicago Cubs Majors 6 17 1 3 0 0 0 2 3 2 5 0 0 0 0.176 0.250 0.250 0.176 0.426

Overview

Drafted in the first round in 2006 out of Clemson, Colvin has slowly progressed through the Cubs’ system since then.  In 2009, Colvin spent much of his time in Daytona recovering from Tommy John Surgery and later a concussion suffered in a horrific collision in the outfield.  After his recovery, Colvin hit his way into a promotion with Tennessee and later into a September call up with the Cubs.

The Good: Colvin utilizes a strong left-handed swing that should allow him to hit for average and power in the majors, with optimistic projections having him around .280 and 20-25 HRs.  A good athlete, Colvin has shown the ability to patrol the outfield effectively and man center field when called upon.

The Bad: Defensively, Colvin likely will end up in left field.  He does not have the arm to play right field and, while he is a good athlete, he lacks the speed needed to man center field regularly.  As a result, Colvin might not have a good enough bat to have him be better than an average starter in LF, especially considering Colvin does not draw many walks.

Comments

Transmogrified_Tiger: He had a nice year, but he does not have much value as a bench guy and his offensive breakout this season came in his third stint in AA.

Tim: A lot of his struggles early in the season were injury-related and he should murder Iowa next season, which should help drive up his perceived value substantially.

RHP Chris Archer

Bio

Born: 09/26/1988
Birthplace: Raleigh, NC
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 180
Bats: R
Throws: R

Stats

Team Level W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/FO BAA BABIP
Peoria Low A 6 4 2.81 27 26 0 0 0 109.0 78 41 34 0 66 119 1.48 0.202 0.293

Overview

The Cleveland Indians drafted Chris Archer in the 5th round of the 2006 draft out of high school.  The Cubs acquired Archer in the Mark DeRosa trade, assigning him to Low A Peoria, where he spent his entire season.  In the prospect chat, Archer ranked anywhere from the back end of some poster’s top ten lists to the late teens.

The Good: Archer did not surrender a single home run in nearly 110 innings pitched.  Archer features a fastball which sits in the low 90s and touches 93/94 on occasion.  His curveball is an effective out pitch, especially since it has the same release point as his fastball.

The Bad: Archer suffered from terrible control issues, walking 66 batters and hitting 7 batters over the course of the season.  Despite being 20 years old, 2009 was Archer’s third appearance and second full season in Low A.

Comments

Craig: As high as his 66 BB/109 IP is, that’s actually an improvement over last year.  While he might never figure it out, if he continues not giving up home runs, that could help cover up some of his issues.

Outshined_One: If his control doesn’t improve, he’ll never make it out of the minors.  If it does, he could be a very good middle of the rotation starter.

RHP Chris Huseby

Bio

Born: 01/11/1988
Birthplace: Duluth, MN
Height: 6' 7"
Weight: 220
Bats: R
Throws: R

Stats

Team Level W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/FO BAA BABIP
Peoria Low A 4 5 1.83 40 0 0 0 18 54.0 43 11 11 3 10 73 1.42 0.213 0.335

Overview

The Cubs tabbed Huseby in the 11th round of the 2006 draft and gave him a $1.3m signing bonus, despite Huseby recovering from Tommy John Surgery at the time.  Despite a promising 2007 season in Boise, Huseby suffered a variety of setbacks in the 2008 season, resulting in him being assigned to Peoria’s bullpen in 2009, where Huseby quickly became the Chiefs’ closer.

The Good: Huseby features two plus pitches in his slider and cutter.  He racked up strikeouts with those pitches while keeping his BBs and HRs to a minimum.  Huseby also features excellent deception from the right side.

The Bad: Huseby’s fastball primarily sits in the high 80s, hitting 90/91 during his outings, which is somewhat surprising given his height.  While he was the best reliever in the Cubs’ minor leagues, he did so at a low level.  A move to the rotation could be in his future, but whether he can sustain his stuff deep into outings over the course of a season remains to be seen.

Comments

UK: Plus slider, plus cutter, best command in the system, and extremely deceptive.  Even though he is a reliever, he is one of the ten best prospects in this system.

Toonsterwu: He does not seem like a dominant back end of the bullpen arm as he moves up the ladder.  If he goes back to starting, he has a solid arsenal and could be effective.

IF DJ LeMahieu

Bio

Born: 07/13/1988
Birthplace: Bloomfield Hills, MI
College: Lousiana State University
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 185
Bats: R
Throws: R

Stats

Team Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB K HBP SB CS AVG BABIP OBP SLG OPS
Arizona ROOK 3 12 2 5 0 1 0 4 7 1 3 0 1 0 0.417 0.556 0.429 0.583 1.012
Peoria Low A 38 152 19 48 4 2 0 30 56 12 22 2 2 2 0.316 0.369 0.371 0.368 0.740

Overview

The Cubs drafted LeMahieu in the second round of the 2009 draft out of Louisiana State.  The Cubs did not sign LeMahieu immediately, as LSU was in the midst of a run to the NCAA National Championship at the College World Series.  LeMahieu was a valuable cog in the LSU offense, getting base hits and drawing walks at critical moments.  Following his signing, the Cubs started LeMahieu in the Arizona League, but quickly moved him to Peoria, where he finished his season.

The Good: LeMahieu employs a contact-heavy approach, using all fields to his advantage.  He also brings good patience at the plate to the table, posting a 22/12 K/BB in 152 ABs with the Cubs.  LeMahieu was successful on the base paths with LSU, going 10/11 in 2008 and 12/16 in 2009.  LeMahieu profiles as a second baseman, although he has enough experience at SS to play there if needed.  He also could adjust his swing and add some bulk to his frame if he wishes to develop more power.

The Bad: LeMahieu currently lacks power.  Whether or not he can add that power without detracting from his other skills remains to be seen.  His arm and range on defense should limit him to second base in the long run, where he will face stiff competition in this system.

Comments

Craig: If he grows into Todd Walker-level power, he should be good.  If he instead has Theriot or Bako-level power, he will be much more limited.

Tim: A lot of how you evaluate LeMahieu depends on whether you think he can stick at SS.  At the moment, he’s a Theriot who can develop power if he adds loft to his swing.

LHP John Gaub

Bio

Born: 04/28/1985
Birthplace: St. Paul, MN
College: U Minnesota
Height: 6' 2"
Weight: 200
Bats: R
Throws: L

Stats

Team Level W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/FO BAA BABIP
Tennessee AA 3 1 2.83 26 0 0 0 4 28.6 19 12 9 3 17 40 0.80 0.188 0.281
Iowa AAA 1 1 1.72 26 0 0 0 1 31.3 17 6 6 1 16 40 0.82 0.157 0.249
Mesa Solar Sox AFL 0 0 10.38 9 0 0 0 0 8.6 12 10 10 1 4 14 0.50 0.343 x.xxx

Overview

The Cleveland Indians selected Gaub in the 21st round of the 2006 draft out of the University of Minnesota.  Along with Chris Archer and Jeff Stevens, Gaub came over to the Cubs in the Mark DeRosa trade.  Gaub started his season in AA Tennessee, where he worked out of the bullpen.  Roughly halfway through the season, the Cubs promoted Gaub to Iowa, where he improved on his numbers from Tennessee.  After the regular season, Gaub joined the Mesa Solar Sox in the Arizona Fall League, where he has struggled.

The Good: Gaub primarily works as a fastball-slider reliever, working in the low 90s with his fastball.  He lowered his arm angle with the Indians and enjoyed success with deception in his delivery.  Gaub is effective against righties and lefties, as he uses both sides of the plate and throws his potent slider to both types of hitters.

The Bad: Gaub periodically suffers mechanical breakdowns, which has resulted in bouts of wildness and control problems.  Gaub also has a history of shoulder injuries going back to his college days, although he has been healthy for two straight seasons.

Comments

Toonsterwu: There’s hope that he can be a LOOGY-plus, but with his control problems, there are better relievers in this system than Gaub.

Craig: There is a lot of value to be had in good relievers.  He seems like a reasonably safe bet to make the majors and be useful, although whether he will be better than Ohman/Hermida/Cotts is an iffy proposition.

RHP Casey Coleman

Bio

Born: 07/03/1987
Birthplace: Cape Coral, FL
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 180
Bats: L
Throws: R

Stats

Team Level W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/FO BAA BABIP
Tennessee AA 14 6 3.68 27 27 1 0 0 149.0 142 63 61 8 58 84 1.53 0.256 0.285

Overview

The son of former major leaguer Joe Coleman, the Cubs selected Casey Coleman in the 15th round of the 2008 draft.  Coleman quickly moved through the system after his debut, making stops at Boise, Peoria, and Daytona.  Coleman began and finished his season with Tennessee in 2009, logging almost 150 innings as the rotation’s workhorse.

The Good: On the mound, Coleman displays an intense demeanor and an excellent grasp on pitching.  His fastball sits in the high 80s, occasionally hitting the low 90s, plus he mixes in his curve and change well.

The Bad: At best, Coleman projects as a back end of the rotation inning eater.  He appears to be physically maxed out and likely will not add much more velocity to his fastball.

Comments

Outshined_One: He is incredibly mature for his age and he already has moved through the system successfully.  He could be an asset as a cheap 4/5 starter, but if he moves to the bullpen, he doesn’t have the stuff to be better than a long reliever.

CaliforniaRaisin: He has good control and sink to his fastball, but there are too many questions about his stuff to rank him higher.

2B Logan Watkins

Bio

Born: 08/29/1989
Birthplace: Wichita, KS
Height: 5' 11"
Weight: 170
Bats: L
Throws: R

Stats

Team Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB K HBP SB CS AVG BABIP OBP SLG OPS
Boise SS A 72 279 48 91 14 2 0 29 109 27 31 3 14 7 0.326 0.367 0.389 0.391 0.780

Overview

A two sport star in Wichita, the Cubs pried Watkins away from his Wichita State commitment with $600,000, despite Watkins being a 21st round selection in the 2008 draft.  Watkins spent his 2008 season in the Arizona League.  In 2009, Watkins became Boise’s second baseman, where he was Hak-Ju Lee’s double play partner for the season.

The Good: Like many Wilken draftees, Watkins is an excellent athlete.  While he manned 2B in 2009, Watkins was slated to play SS with Wichita State.  At the plate, Watkins hit for high average and posted a 31/27 K/BB ratio.  Watkins also projects to add power as he matures

The Bad: Watkins has yet to show power.  Also, while he put his skills on display in short season ball, he still has a long climb up the ladder left.  The Cubs also have a crowded picture at 2B in their system, which should not be held against Watkins, but it will also make it more difficult for him to stand out.

Comments

Craig: His limitations are difficult to gauge.  Will he add more power?  Can he become an effective base stealer?  Is he a starting shortstop, second baseman, or utilityman?

Toonsterwu: The power won’t come.  He’ll make good contact, play solid defense, run the bases fairly well, and could even be a good outfielder.  It all depends on how he develops.

RHP Esmailin Caridad

Bio

Born: 10/28/1983
Birthplace: Haina, Dominican Republic
Height: 5' 10"
Weight: 195
Bats: R
Throws: R

Stats

Team Level W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/FO BAA BABIP
Iowa AAA 5 10 4.17 25 25 0 0 0 131.6 139 71 61 17 46 114 0.66 0.271 0.322
Chicago Cubs Majors 1 1 1.72 26 0 0 0 0 31.3 17 6 6 1 16 40 0.63 0.221 0.286

Overview

Signed away from the Hiroshima Carp at 22, Caridad spent his 2008 season between Daytona and Tennessee, where he showed off low walk totals as a starter.  Caridad continued the trend with Iowa in 2009, where he logged over 130 innings with the I-Cubs.  The Cubs called Caridad up in August, using him out of the bullpen with good success.

The Good: Caridad’s primary offering is his fastball, which sits in the low 90s and has touched 96.  His mechanics are smooth and repeatable, plus his offspeed offerings are effective enough to help him as a reliever.  He has good control and generates enough strikeouts to get himself out of jams.

The Bad: While his fastball is good enough to let him succeed as a reliever, his other offerings leave something to be desired.  As a result, when Caridad doesn’t have his fastball working, he has a tendency to give up home runs.  If his other pitches develop, he could be a good option in the back end of the bullpen.  If not, he projects to middle relief.

Comments

Outshined_One: He’ll be a fixture in the Cubs’ bullpen for the foreseeable future.  Depending on how well his other stuff develops, he could either be a valuable setup man or a decent middle relief option.

Toonsterwu: He was overhyped because of his showing in the Arizona Fall League last season, but he throws strikes and will, at the least, be a solid middle reliever.

LHP Chris Rusin

Bio

Born: 10/22/1986
Birthplace: Canton, MI
College: Kentucky
Height: 6' 2"
Weight: 185
Bats: L
Throws: L

Stats

Team Level W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/FO BAA BABIP
Arizona ROOK 0 0 0.00 2 1 0 0 0 5.0 1 0 0 0 3 2 5.50 0.067 0.076
Boise SS A 0 4 3.48 8 8 0 0 0 31.0 33 14 12 1 9 27 1.58 0.270 0.346

Overview

The Cubs took Rusin, a senior at the University of Kentucky, with their 4th round pick in the 2009 draft.  Rusin spent the majority of his season in Boise, where he put together an effective, although not particularly overwhelming season with the Hawks.

The Good: Rusin offers a fastball in the high 80s which features good movement.  His curve and slider are also good pitches.  He works particularly well against left handers.  His delivery is deceptive and should help him as he moves along.

The Bad: Rusin still has to work on his changeup in order to advance.  His velocity is pretty much maxed out at this point, which means his upside is decidedly limited.  What you see is what you get.

Comments

Transmogrified_Tiger: He did exactly what he needed to do, but now he needs to be jumped to a more age-appropriate level to see if he can do it again.

LHP Jeffry Antigua

Bio

Born: 06/23/1990
Birthplace: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 170
Bats: R
Throws: L

Stats

Team Level W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/FO BAA BABIP
Boise SS A 2 1 2.30 7 5 0 0 0 31.3 19 8 8 3 10 35 1.03 0.171 0.231
Peoria Low A 4 0 3.62 7 7 0 0 0 37.3 30 16 15 4 9 33 0.97 0.214 0.265

Overview

Antigua debuted with the Dominican Summer League Cubs in 2007, where he posted strong numbers across the board and made a strong impression on a team that featured Starlin Castro and Junior Lake.  The Cubs moved Antigua slowly along in 2008, keeping him in the Arizona League, where Antigua pitched a little over 40 innings.  In 2009, Antigua split his season between Boise and Peoria as a 19 year old, combining for over 68 innings.

The Good: Antigua was very young for his levels this season and held his own.  In 2008, his groundball and homerun rates showed a glimpse of a pitcher who can keep the ball on the ground.  He still has room for projection as a 19 year old, which speaks well for his growth down the line.  Reportedly, he can get his fastball into the low 90s, with his second best pitch being his curveball to go with curveball that is currently fringy.

The Bad: Antigua is still very rough around the edges.  It is unclear just how much room Antigua has left to grow.  His stuff could take a major leap forward if he grows and fills out, but he also could be roughly around his ceiling at the moment.  Also worrying was the fact that his homerun rate went up and his groundball rate went down in 2009, compared to his 2008 season.

Comments

Craig: Young, pretty good fastball, has breaking stuff. Hard to know how good he can become, but for the moment hasn't manifested any obvious red flags yet.

Some Notable Prospects Outside of the Top 20

C Welington Castillo

Born: 04/24/1987
Birthplace: San Isidro, Dominican Republic
Height: 6' 0"
Weight: 200
Bats: R
Throws: R

Brief Overview

Team Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB K HBP SB CS AVG BABIP OBP SLG OPS
Tennessee AA 95 319 27 74 16 0 11 39 123 15 71 4 1 0 0.232 0.266 0.275 0.386 0.661
Mesa Solar Sox AFL 4 14 1 5 0 0 1 2 8 2 5 0 0 0 0.357 x.xxx 0.438 0.571 1.009

A strong candidate for the Cubs’ top 10 last year, Castillo’s stock dropped like a lead weight after struggling with his hitting Tennessee, although he recovered somewhat late in the season.  While Castillo hit into some bad luck, reports surfaced about Castillo having some issues behind the plate, which hurt his defensive reputation.  Castillo spent some time in the Arizona Fall League, but was replaced by Michael Brenly, Bob Brenly’s son, after Castillo appeared in four games.  Castillo currently profiles as a backup catcher with some pop in his bat.

LHP Austin Kirk

Bio

Born: 05/22/1990
Birthplace: Owasso, OK
Height: 6' 1"
Weight: 200
Bats: L
Throws: L

Brief Overview

Team Level W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/FO BAA BABIP
Arizona ROOK 1 0 3.12 5 2 0 0 0 8.6 8 3 3 0 4 10 1.14 0.267 0.357
Boise SS A 1 1 5.40 2 0 0 0 0 5.0 2 4 3 1 3 5 1.25 0.100 0.099

Kirk was the Cubs’ 3rd round selection in the 2009 draft.  Kirk has a major league fastball at the moment, working 88-92, but needs to work on his curveball and changeup as he advances.  Kirk also does not appear to have much more room for physical growth, although his stuff is already good enough that, with refinement, Kirk could be an effective middle of the rotation starter.

LHP Brooks Raley

Bio

Born: 06/29/1988
Birthplace: San Antonio, TX
College: Texas A&M
Height: 6' 3"
Weight: 185
Bats: L
Throws: L

Brief Overview

Team Level W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/FO BAA BABIP
Arizona ROOK 0 1 4.15 3 3 0 0 0 4.3 2 4 2 1 2 3 1.50 0.125 0.098
Boise SS A 0 0 1.42 2 0 0 0 0 6.3 3 1 1 1 1 2 1.50 0.150 0.112

Raley was an athletic two-way star at Texas A&M, but the Cubs converted him to full-time pitcher.  Raley needs to sharpen his secondary stuff and still is rough around the edges, although there is some hope he could add velocity and work in the low 90s with his fastball.  With more time and development, Raley could find himself as an effective innings-eater left hander in the majors.

RHP Kenneth “Trey” McNutt

Bio

Born: 08/02/1989
Birthplace: Haleyville, AL
College: Shelton State CC
Height: 6' 4"
Weight: 205
Bats: R
Throws: R

Brief Overview

Team Level W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/FO BAA BABIP
Arizona ROOK 0 1 0.00 6 4 0 0 0 7.3 5 5 0 0 3 7 1.33 0.167 0.268
Boise SS A 3 0 1.33 7 2 0 0 0 20.3 9 7 3 1 12 21 1.47 0.132 0.180

A relative unknown in the 2009 draft, the Cubs selected McNutt in the 32nd round of the 2009 draft out of community college and gave him an over slot bonus.  McNutt only logged 27.3 innings between Arizona and Boise in his debut, but he garnered attention for having a fastball in the mid-90s to go with a power curveball.  With two good pitches, McNutt could make an impact as a reliever and move quickly through the Cubs’ system.

IF Junior Lake

Bio

Born: 03/27/1990
Birthplace: San Pedro, Dominican Republic
Height: 6' 2"
Weight: 200
Bats: R
Throws: R

Brief Overview

Team Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB K HBP SB CS AVG BABIP OBP SLG OPS
Peoria Low A 131 463 71 115 19 7 7 42 169 18 138 2 10 7 0.248 0.340 0.277 0.365 0.642

Like Starlin Castro, Lake first made his mark on the Cubs’ system in the Arizona League in 2008 as a lanky infielder with the potential for power, average, and good defense.  Lake spent his 2009 in Peoria, where he showed flashes of his potential at the plate and in the field.  He also has a number of problems, namely his strikeouts (138 in 463 ABs), lack of walks (18), and his errors.  The Chiefs moved him around the infield, where he logged 37 errors at SS and 20 errors at 2B.  Lake was young for the league, at 19 years old, and he still has the potential to tap into his vast toolset.  However, in ranking Lake, production (or lack thereof) trumped potential.

RHP Ryan Searle

Bio

Born: 06/22/1989
Birthplace: Brisbane, Australia
Height: 6' 0"
Weight: 190
Bats: R
Throws: R

Brief Overview

Team Level W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/FO BAA BABIP
Daytona A+ 7 11 4.42 26 24 0 0 0 116.0 121 71 57 5 43 68 2.08 0.264 0.309

Ryan Searle signed out of Australia in 2007 as a raw, but talented 17 year old pitcher.  Searle started 2008 in the Arizona League and later moved up to Boise.  This season, the Cubs assigned Searle to Daytona, where Searle logged over 115 innings.  Searle received mixed reviews during the season.  He showcased excellent sink on his pitches, which let him get groundballs and keep the ball in the park.  The first half of his season was good enough to get him named to the Florida State League All Star Game.  On the other hand, his secondary stuff still needs improvement and he needs to keep his emotions on check while pitching.  His numbers also took a huge hit in the second half, where Searle allowed more hits and fewer groundballs.  Still, he had a successful season for a 19/20 year old at Daytona.

C Steven Clevenger

Bio

Born: 04/05/1986
Birthplace: Baltimore, MD
College: Chipola JC, FL
Height: 6' 0"
Weight: 195
Bats: L
Throws: R

Brief Overview

Team Level G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB K HBP SB CS AVG BABIP OBP SLG OPS
Tennessee AA 26 77 12 28 4 3 1 10 41 10 8 1 0 0 0.364 0.397 0.443 0.532 0.976
Iowa AAA 68 230 21 61 12 1 0 26 75 15 31 1 4 3 0.265 0.308 0.309 0.326 0.635

The Cubs selected Clevenger in the 7th round of the 2006 out of Chipola Junior College.  Since then, the Cubs have eased him into catching as Clevenger moved through the system.  While Clevenger primarily logged time with Iowa and Tennessee as a catcher, Clevenger also spent some time at 1B and 3B.  At the plate, Clevenger hits for high average and has shown reasonable patience, although he does not hit for much power.  Clevenger’s value is tied to his defense, which has progressed over the years.  He still needs to improve on defense if he wishes to become a major league regular.

OF Dong-Yub Kim and OF Kyung-Min Na

Brief Overview (No Bios Available)

The two most expensive signings out of the Pacific Rim this past season, Kim and Na both signed out of South Korea for bonuses exceeding $500,000.  Kim has a large frame and good speed, leading most to believe he profiles as a potential five tool outfielder down the road.  Na, who received more in bonus money, is a 5’6 centerfielder who showcases good defense with his speed and arm.  More information is needed about both before they can be accurately evaluated and ranked, although both prospects attracted a lot of buzz.

Thanks to Tim, Transmogrified_Tiger, CaliforniaRaisin, UK, Craig, and Toonsterwu for all of their hard work and participation in this project!

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