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Friday July 30 , 2010

The Unexpected

A long-time denizen of the Cubs' minor league system has made six brilliant starts in a row for the Cubs. In 38 2/3 innings, he's given up 31 hits, with a spectacular 31:8 ratio of strikeouts to walks. His ERA is 1.86, and while he hasn't gotten a win yet in those six starts, he's become appointment viewing for Cubs' fans.

Carlos Zambrano, right?

Wrong.

A young Latin American reliever for the Cubs who had a rough time of it when put into the starting rotation back in 2006 has resurfaced as a dominant setup guy for the team. With a 2.28 ERA, he's displayed impeccable control and has been borderline unhittable. He's the leading contender to take the closer's job from Kevin Gregg when Lou Piniella gets sick of Gregg's crap.

Carlos Marmol, right?

Wrong.

The first guy is Randy Wells. The second guy is Angel Guzman.

Wells's rise to cult-hero status in Chicago has been even sweeter than Bobby Scales's was. Scales, after all, is just a light-hitting, scrappy infielder who hustles, plays acceptable defense and lines an extra-base hit here and there. Wells is a strong-armed righthander who fears no one and has done nothing but get outs since arriving from AAA Iowa. His ERA for the season - for his short career, for that matter (he didn't give up any runs last year in Toronto or Chicago either) - has yet to rise above 2.00. He took a 'perfect game' two outs into the 7th inning last week in Atlanta  before Chipper Jones ruined that (quote marks because of Yunel Escobar's fake hit-by-pitch), but like they have in three starts in a row, the bullpen gagged away that lead. His first start was uneven enough, even in five scoreless innings, to make Piniella's decision to boot Sean Marshall from the rotation in Wells's favor a puzzling one, but since then, the outs just keep piling up. Wells's worst start thus far was a seven-inning, three-run effort in San Diego in which he struck out seven and walked one.

The faithful are waiting for the other shoe to drop with Wells - after all, guys don't tend to play their first full big-league season at age 26 if they're legitimately good - but for now, it just doesn't seem to be happening. Wells isn't getting by with smoke and mirrors, great defensive plays or fluke pitches. He's flat-out controlling games. He never seems to get fazed on the mound, something presumably made easier by the fact that he rarely has a reason to be.

Guzman's rise to prominence is perhaps slightly less remarkable. After all, he was the Cubs' top pitching prospect for about a gazillion years - to give you an idea, his name was being tossed around as a future star back when Mark Prior was a young pup and we thought Juan Cruz was a better prospect than Carlos Zambrano. He finally conquered his injury history enough to make his big-league debut in the rotation in 2006, but had control issues and was exceedingly hittable on his way to a 7.39 ERA. He'd made cameo appearances in the big leagues the last two years, but that pesky injury bug kept him out on a full-time basis until this year, when he remade himself as a reliever. He has been brilliant, the new Marmol in the face of the old one's collapse. In 27 2/3 innings he's only given up 17 hits and struck out 25 while suffering no major control problems or injury issues. If he keeps up this performance, he might just get the benefit of a groundswell of support for the All-Star Game similar to the one Marmol got last season - not to mention become the Cubs' new closer, a job I plugged him for three weeks ago.

These two have been a breath of fresh air on a Cubs team riddled with guys not performing (Soriano, Bradley, Fontenot, Soto, Gregg, Marmol, Heilman) even close to the way they should. Finally, some unexpected success. The Cubs will need some more if they're going to have a hope in this suddenly stacked NL Central.

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